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    题名: 技術變動之測定與臺灣製造業成長之實證分析
    作者: 蔡豐清
    贡献者: 吳家聲
    蔡豐清
    日期: 1985
    上传时间: 2016-11-09 17:06:57 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 論文提要
    根據行政院主計處的統計，國內生產淨額中各業所占的百分比，以製造業所佔的比重最大，民國73年中，佔約36.24％。政府自一九六○年來所實施的獎勵投資條例中，主要的策略包括減稅、加速折舊，進出機器設備關稅之免除以及加工出口區的設立，再再地加速了製造業的快速發展而成為工業部門中的關鍵性產業，在政府積極的輔導策略之下，使製造業部門的產業與技術結構更趨向資本密集與技術密集化。
    本文的目的，乃利用民國50年至72年製造業之實際資料，從Translog成本函數出發來測定技術變動的偏向，文中並探討影響技術變動偏向的原因，說明技術變動測定時的分析方法。在計量方法上，我們利用「表面上沒有關聯的迴歸系統」（Seemingly Unrelated Regression System）與「反覆三階段最小平方法（Iterative Three-Stage Least Square Method）進行聯立方程式體系的估計。我們發現民國51年至72年，製造業本身不斷地因應國際經濟情勢以調整整個產業在要素投入使用的方向及結構。五十年代約略是少用資本，少用勞動、少用能源及多用中間投入的技術偏向，59及60年的出口快速擴張造成61年的偏向型態為多用資本、少用勞動、多用能源、少用中間投入。62年石油危機之後，製造業不斷改善生產設備，調整要素使用比率，民國65年以後政府的輔導策略再再地使製造業（民國七十年代）在技術變動型態上，相對地走向多用資本、多用勞動、少用能源，及多用中間投入的偏向，使製造業的生產結構更趨向資本密集及技術密集化。
    長期間技術變動不僅可以降低產出成本、改善品質，為社會提供更多的財貨與勞務，並可提升就業水準，因而本文架構一個生產力成長的兩部門模型來探討製造業生產力成長及其對營造業、水電煤氣業及礦業的生產力的影響，並探討影響工業部門生產力成長的因素。我們發現：製造業的產出成長對於其他三業別的勞動生產力有其外部經濟的功效，就業快速的增加，使得勞動的成長大於廠商產量的成長，因而減緩勞動生產力的增加，資本存量的變動除礦業之外，對其他三業別的生產力成長均有提升的效果，這與民國72年製造業技術變動偏向：「多用資本、少用勞動、少用能源與多用中間投入」的走向頗為一致。
    第一章 緒論 1
    第一節 研究動機與目的1
    第二節 本文架構與研究方法2
    第二章 生產函數模型之引介4
    第一節 線型齊次生產函數5
    第二節 非齊向生產函數14
    第三節 生產函數型式的選擇19
    第三章 技術變動之測定與經濟分析32
    第一節 技術變動的一般均衡分析32
    第二節 非中立性技術變動的參數分析法44
    第三節 技術變動的測定：台灣製造業技術變動之實證研究50
    第四章 技術變動、產出與就業成長79
    第一節 技術變動對產出與就業之影響79
    第二節 生產力成長之兩部門模型86
    第三節 台灣製造業生產力成長之實證分析91
    第五章 結論與未來研究方向98

    表次
    表一：常用的線型生產函數型式26
    表二：台灣製造業要素價格、產出與成本59
    表三：台灣製造業要素成本份額60
    表四：聯立方程式Iterative 3SLS的參數估計值64
    表五：dBK, dBL , dBE及 dBM之計算值66
    表六：民國51年至72年製造業技術變動型態68
    表六(a)：民國51年至72年製造業技術變動偏向簡表69
    表七：資本深化度變動率、資本利用率變動率及出口值變動率70
    表八：影響技術變動偏向因素之迴歸結果71
    表九：工業部門生產力成長之迴歸分析93
    附表一：工業部門就業人口101
    附表二：工業部門實質國內生產毛額102
    附表三：工業部門受雇員工平均工時統計103
    附表四：工業部門實質資本存量104
    附表五：工業部門勞動生產力105
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    3.吳家聲〔1983b〕：「台灣地區製造業技術變動及要素替代性分析--李昂提夫函數之運用」，台灣經濟，第80期，P. P. 19～30 .
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