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    题名: 政治聯合理論 : 內閣制國家政府聯合之分析
    作者: 鄒篤麒
    贡献者: 謝復生
    鄒篤麒
    日期: 1985
    上传时间: 2016-11-08 16:31:16 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 論文提要
    數十年來，政治學家們專心研究政治決定是如何形成的，期望能夠建立具有解釋和預測效力的科學理論。不過，目前能夠達到這種要求水平者不多，政府聯合理論中的數量原則被視為可能性較高的一種。本論文以政府聯合為研究範圍，主要基於下述兩方面的認知。第一，目前政治學中唯有以理性抉擇方式建構的理論，符合實證學者們所要求科學理論標準。賴克的政治聯合理論--數量原則，就是以這種方法所建構的理論之一。此外，我們尚可以從政府聯合理論的發展演進過程發現類似孔恩所提出的科學發展的型態。第二，根據道爾的研究認為多黨制度是民主政體中政府黨與在野黨之間處理彼此衝突的正常途徑；類似英美型式的兩黨制度則為異例。在多黨制度中政府聯合成立是政治活動中最核心的表現，以其為研究對象期盼進一步瞭解政治的本質。
    本論文主要是探討政府聯合上的問題，分析賴克依理性建構方式所發展出的「數量原則」，命題之後，學者們所做的後續研究與成果。各章內容概述如下：
    第一章緒論。主要在說明聯合的意義，政治聯合研究方式，政府聯合成立的過程。
    第二章數量原則。首先，說明數量原則的基礎--理性抉擇模式與博奕理論內容；其次解釋數量原則的推論。最後則綜述學者們的批評與修正。
    第三章數量原則後的理論發展，主要是在分析學者們如何更進一步的修正聯合理論的成果。
    第四章政府聯合成立的經驗性分析。說明運用統計分析各家理論的結果。同時對經驗世界中政府聯合表現加以說明。
    第五章聯合償付分配之研究。由於理性個體是以利益為決定參與聯合的標準，因此對聯合償付分配時型態有加以分析的必要。本章除了分析學者們實証分析結果外，並且指出前述檢定在經驗世界中所無法表現的償付型態。
    第六章結論，綜合數量原則後研究的結果，並且指出目前最新的分析模型與說明未來可能發展的方向。
    第一章 緒論1
    第二章 數量原則17
    第一節 數量原則的基礎18
    第二節 數量原則內容33
    第三節 數量原則的批評43
    第三章 數量原則後理論發展71
    第一節 修正數量原則理論發展71
    第二節 其他方式理論的提出90
    第四章 政府聯合的經驗性分析111
    第一節 政府聯合的檢定112
    第二節 實際政府聯合分析120
    第五章 聯合償付分配之研究147
    第一節 償付分配理論148
    第二節 聯合償付分配實證分析162
    第三節 經驗世界中的償付事實169
    第六章 結論193
    參考書目200
    參考文獻: 壹、中文部份（書籍與論文）
    1.李豐斌譯，歷史定論主義的窮困（台北：聯經出版事業公司，民國七十年）
    2.洪茂雄，「西德綠色黨之崛起及其對政黨政治之影響」，歐洲研究，第三期（淡江大學歐洲研究所出版，民國七十一年十二月），頁48-60。
    3¬.________，「西德政經危機與新政府之展望」，問題與研究，第二十二卷第三期（民國七十一年十二月十日），頁28-42。
    4.________，「西德第十屆聯邦議會和新政府之展望」，問題與研究，第二十二卷第九期（民國七十二年六月十日），頁66-77。
    5.¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬¬________，「當前奧地利之政治發展」，問題與研究，第二十二卷第十期（民國七十二年七月十日），頁
    6.袁頌西，「理性與政治行為：湯斯、布卡索、鐵洛克三氏理論之分析與檢討」，食貨，復刊一卷一期（民國六十年四月），頁 39-49。
    7.________，「威廉 • 賴克爾之『政治聯合論』述評」，食貨，復刊一卷九期（民國六十年十二月），頁45-49。
    8.________，「從行為論到後行為論：政治學中爭論的焦點及其哲學背景」，台大社會科學論叢，第二十九輯（國立台灣大學法學院出版，民國七十年），頁105-129。
    9. ________，「實徵論與詮釋派之論爭」，政治學報，第九期（中國政治學會出版，民國七十年十二月），頁52-107。
    10. ________，「當代政治學中理論建構的方法及其問題」政治學報，第十期（中國政治學會出版，民國七十一年十二月），頁87-132。
    11.國民大會憲政研討委員會編纂，世界各國憲法大全，第二冊（台北：國民大會出版，民國五十五年）。
    12.莊錦農，「理性與政治決策」，政治學報，第七期（中國政治學會出版，民國六十七年十二月），頁179-233。
    13.陳水逢，日本政府與政治（台北：黎明文化公司，民國六十八年）。
    14.楊合義，「『田中判決』與中曾根聯合內閣」，問題與研究，第二十三卷第四期（民國七十三年元月十日），頁14-24。
    15.謝復生，「協和式民主政治理論之檢討」，政治學報第十期抽印本（中國政治學會，民國七十一年十二月）。
    16.________，「多元分歧的社會與穩定的民主政治--馬來西亞之個案研究」，政治學報，第十一期抽印本（中國政治學會，民國七十二年十二月）。
    17.________，「選舉制度與政黨多寡：從理性選擇論到科學法則的建立」（中國政治學會七十三年學術研討會論文）。
    貳、英文部份
    一、書籍與讀本
    1. Abrams, Robert.,Foundations of Political Analysis (N.Y.: Columbia University Press, 1980).
    2. Almond, Gabriel A., Political Development: Essays in Heuristic Theory (台北翻印本).
    3. Anton, T., Administered Politics: Elite Political Culture in Sweden (Boston: Martinus Nijhoff, 1980).
    4. Axelrod, Robert, Conflict of Interest: A Theory of Divergent Goals with Applications to Politics (Chicago: Markham, 1970).
    5. Bluhm, William T., Theories of Political System(台北:虹橋翻印本).
    6. Brams, Steven J., Game Theory and Politics (New York: The Free Press, 1975).
    7. Brodbeck, May, ed., Readings in the Philosophy of the Social Science (New York: Macmillam, 1968).
    8. Browne, Eric C., and J. Dreijmanis, (eds.), Government Coalitions
    in Western Democracies (New York: Longman, 1982).
    9. Caplow, Theodore, Two against One: Coalitions in Triads(台北:雙葉翻印本).
    10. Charlesworth, James C., ed., Contemporary Political Analysis(台北:虹橋翻印本).
    11. Dahl, Robert A. ed.,Political Oppositions in Western Democracies (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).
    12. Dahl, Robert A.,Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1971).
    13. Dahl, Robert A., and Charles E. Lindbloom, Politics, Economics and Welfare (N. Y.: Harper and Row, 1953).
    14.De Swaan, Abram., Coalition Theories and Cabinet Formations (New York: Elsevier Scientific Publishing Company, 1973).
    15. Diesing, Paul, Patterns of Discovery in the Social Sciences (New York: Aldine, 1971).
    16. Di Palma, Giuseppe, Surviving Without Governing: The Italian Parties in Parliamentary (Berkeley, Calif: University of California Press, 1977).
    17. Downs, Anthony, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper and Row, 1957).
    18. Duverger, Maurice, Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State, Trans. Barbara and Robert North (London: Methuen, 1954).
    19. Eckstein, Harry, Division and Cohesion in Democracy (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1966).
    20. Forhlich, Norman, and J. Oppenheimer, Modern Political Economy (Englewood cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-hall, 1978).
    21. Goodin, R. E., The Politics of Rational Man, (London;John Wiley & Jones, 1976).
    22. Groenning, Sven, E. W. Kelley, and Michael Leiserson, eds. The Study of Coalition Behavior (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston. Inc., 1970).
    23. Hsieh, Fuh-sheng, The Formation of Grand Coalitions in Politics (Ph. D. Dissertation, University of Rochester, 1981).
    24. Holt, Robert T., and John E. Turner, The Methodology of Comparative Research (New York: The Free Press, 1970).
    25. Issak, Alan C., Scope and Methods of Political Science (Homewood: The Dorsey Press, 1969).
    26. Kuhn, Thomas, The Sturcture of Scientific Revolutions,2nd ed. enlarged(台北:雙葉翻印本).
    27. Leites, Nathan, On Game of Politics in France (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1959).
    28. Levin, L., and Evert Vedung, (eds.), Politics as a Rational Action (Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing Company, 1980).
    29. Lijphart, Arend, The Politics of Accommodation (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1968).
    30.________ , Democracy in Plural Societies: a Comparative Explanation (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1977).
    31.Mahler, Gregory S., The Knesset: Parliament in the Israeli Political System (London: Associated University Press, 1981).
    32. Neumann, S., ed., Modern Political Parties: Approaches to Comparative Politics (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1956).
    33. Niemi, Richard G., and Hervet Weisberg, eds., Probability Models of Collective Decision-Making (Columbus: Charles Merrill, 1972).
    34. Olson, Mancur, The Logic of Collective Action (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1965).
    35. Powell, G. B., Jr. Contemporary Democracies (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1982).
    36. Rae, Dauglas W., The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1967).
    37.________ , and Michael Taylor, The Analysis of Political Cleavages (New Haven: Yale University Press 1970).
    38. Rapoport, Anatol, N-Person Game Theory (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1970).
    39. Riker, William H., The Theory of Political Coalitions (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1962).
    40.________ , Liberalism against Populism (San Francisco: W. M. Freeman and Company, 1982).
    41.________ , and Peter C. Ordeshook, An Introduction to Positive Political Theory (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1973).
    42. Rustow, Dankwart A., The Politics of Compromise (New York: Greenwood Press Publishers, 1969).
    43. Sartori, Giovanni, Parties and Party Systems (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1976).
    44. Shubik, Martin, ed., Game Theory and Related Approaches to Social Behavior (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1964).
    45. Steiner, Kurt, Amicable Agreement versus Majority Rule: Conflict Resolution in Switzerland (Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 1974).
    46. Von Neumann, John, and Oscar Morgenstein, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1972).
    47.Zuckerman, Alan S., The Politics of Faction: Christian Democratic Rule in Italy (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1979).
    二.期刊論文(含讀本的文章)
    1. Adrian, Charles R., and Charles Press,"Decision Costs in Coalition Formation," American Political Science Review, 62(1968). PP.556-563.
    2. Arian, Alan, and Samuel Barnes, "The Dominant Party System.: A Neglected Model of Political Stability," Journal of Politics, 36 (August, 1974), PP.592-614.
    3. Barry, Brain, "Political Evaluation," in F. Greenstein and N. Polsby (eds.), Handbook of Political Science, Vol.1. (台北翻印本), PP.337-401.
    4. Brams, Steven J., "Positive Coalition Theory: The Relationship between Postulated Goals and Derived Behavior," in Cornelius P. Cotter ed., Political Science Annual: An International Review, (Indianapolis: The Bobbs-Merrill Company, 1973), PP.3-40.
    5. Browne, Eric C., "Testing Theories of Coalition Formation in the European Context," Comparative Political Studies, 3 (January, 1971). PP.391-412.
    6.________ , and Karen A. Feste, "Qualitative Dimensions of Coalition Payoffs: Evidence from European Party Government, 1945-1970," American Behavioral Scientist, 18(March/April, 1975), PP.92-118.
    7.________ , "Scaling Ministerial Payoffs in European Governing Coalitions," Comparative Political Studies, 11(Oct, 1978), PP.397-408.
    8.________ , and Mark N. Franklin, "Aspects of Coalition Payoffs in European Parliamentary Democracies," American Political Science Review, 67(1973), PP.453-469.
    9.________ , and John P. Frendreis, "Allocating Coalition Payoffs by Conventional Norm: An Assessment of the Evidence from Cabinet Coalition Situations," American Journal of Political Science, 24 (November, 1980), PP.753-768.
    10.________ , and Peter Rice, "A Bargaining Theory of Coalition Formation," British Journal of Political Science, 9 (1979), PP.66-88.
    11.Budge, Ian, and Valentine Herman,"Coalitions and Government Formation: An Empirically Relevant Theory," British Journal of Political Science, 8 (1978), PP.459-477.
    12. Bueno de Mosquita, Bruce, "Coalition and Payoffs and Electoral Performance in European Democracies," Comparative Political Studies, 12 (1979), PP.61-81.
    13. Butterworth, Robert L., "A Research Note on the Size of Winning Coalitions" and "Rejoinder to Riker’s Comment," American Political Science Review, 65 (Sept., 1971), PP.741-745 and PP.747-748.
    14. ________ , "Comment on Shepsle’s On the Size of Winning Coalitions," American Political Science Review, 68 (June, 1974), PP.519-521.
    15. Chertkoff, J., "Socio-psychological Views on Sequential Effects in Coalition Formation, "American Behavioral Socientist, 18(1975), PP.451-471.
    16. Daalder, Hans,"Cabinets and Party Systems in Ten Smaller European Democracies," Acta Politica, 6 (1971), PP.282-303.
    17. Dodd, Lawrence C., "Party Coalitions in Multiparty Parliaments: A Game-Theoretic Analysis," American Political Science Review, 68 (1974), PP.1093-1117.
    18. Eckberg, Douglas L., and Lester Hill, Jr., "The Paradigm Concept and Sociology: A Critical Review" American Sociological Review, 44 (December, 1979), PP.925-937.
    19. Eckstein, Harry, "Case Study and Theory in Political Science," in F. Greenstein and N. Polsby, (eds.), Handbook of Political Science, Vol.7(台北翻印本). PP.79-137.
    20. Felker, Lon S., "Conflict of Interest Theory and Specific Systems: Postwar Italy and Weimar Germany," Comparative Political Studies, 14 (Oct., 1981), PP.357-370.
    21. Felsenthal, Dan S., "Aspects of Coalition Payoffs: The Case of Israel," Comparative Political Studies, 12 (July 1979). PP. 151-168.
    22. Frohlich, Norman, "The Instability of Minimum Winning Coalitions," American Political Science Review, 69 (Sept., 1975), PP.943-946.
    23. Gamson, William A., "A Theory of Coalition Formation," American Sociological Review, 26 (April, 1961), PP.373-382.
    24.________ , "Coalition Formation," in International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, (New York: Macmillan and Free Press. 1968). Vol. PP.529-534.
    25. Hardin, Rusell, "Hollow Victory: the Minimum Winning Coalition," American Political Science Review, 70 (Dec., 1976), PP.1204-1214.
    26. Harsanyi, John C., "Rational-Choice Models of Political Behavior vs. Functionalist and Conformist Theories," World Politics, 21 (July, 1969), PP.513-538.
    27. Herman, Valentine, and John Pope, "Minority Governments in Western Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, 3 (1973), PP.191-212.
    28. Johnston, Scott, "Party Politics and Coalition Cabinets in the Knesset," Middle Eastern Affairs, 13(1962), PP.130-138.
    29. Kelley, E.W., "Techniques of Studying Coalition Formation," Midwest Journal of Political Science, 12 (1968). PP.62-84.
    30. Kramer, G. H., and Joseph Hertzberg, "Formal Theory," in F. Greenstein and N. Polsby, (eds.), Handbook of Political Science Vol. 7. (台北翻印本), PP.351-403.
    31. Laing, James D., Alexander Lebanon, Richard J. Morrison, and Howard Rosenthal, "Computer Models of Political Coalitions," in Cornelius P. Cotter, ed., Political Science Annual: An International Review, Vol. 4,(Indianapolis: The Bobbs-Merrill Company, Inc., 1973), PP.41-47.
    32. Laver, M., “Dynamic Factors in Government Coalition Formation," European Journal of Political Research, 2 (September, 1974), PP.259-270.
    33. Leiserson, Michael, "Factions and Coalitions in One-Party Japan: An Interpretation Based on the Theory of Games," American Political Science Review, 62 (Sept. 1968), PP.770-787.
    34. Lijphart, Arend, "Power-Sharing versus Majority Rule: Patterns of Cabinet Formation in Twenty Democracies," Government and Opposition, 16 (1981), PP.395-413.
    35. Lorwin, Val R., "Segmented Pluralism: Ideological Cleavages and Political Cohesion in the Smaller European Democracies," Comparative Politics, 3 (January, 1971), PP.141-175.
    36. Luebbert, Gregory M., "Coalition Theory and Government Formation in Multiparty Democracies," Comparative Politics, 15 (January, 1983), PP.235-249.
    37.________ , "A Theory of Government Formation," Comparative Political Studies, 17 (July, 1984), PP.229-264.
    38. McCaleb, Thomas S., "The Size Principle and Collective Consumption Payoffs to Political Coalitions," Public Choice, 17 (Spring, 1974), PP.107-109.
    39. Moe, Terry M., "On the Scientific Status of Rational Models," American Journal of Political Science, 23 (1979), PP.215-243.
    40. Moody, Peter R., Jr., "The Erosion of the Funtion of Political Parties in the Post-Liberal State," The Review of Politics, 45 (April, 1983), PP.254-279.
    41. Moon, J. Donald, "The Logic of Political Inquiry: A Synthesis of Opposed Perspectives," in F. Greenstein and N. Polsby, (eds.), Handbook of Political Science, Vol.1(台北翻印本). PP. 131-228.
    42. Morgenstern, Oskar, "Game Theory: Theoretical Aspects," in International Encyclopedia of the Social Science, Vol.6 (New York: Macmillan and Free Press, 1968), PP.62-69.
    43. Muller, D., "Public Choice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, 14(1976), PP.395-433.
    44. Nachmias, David, "A Note on Coalition Payoffs in a Dominant-Party System: Israel," Political Studies, 21 (Sept., 1973), PP. 301-305.
    45.________ ,"Coalition Politics in Israel," Comparative Political Studies, 7(Oct., 1974), PP.316-333.
    46.________ , "The Right Wing Opposition in Israel," Political Studies, 24 (1976), PP.268-280.
    47. Paltiel, K.E., "The Israel Coalition System," Government and Opposition, 10 (1975), PP.397-414.
    48. Riker, William H., "A New Proof of the Size Principle," in J.L. Bernd, ed., Mathematical Applications in Political Science Vol.Ⅱ (Dallas: Southern Methodist University Press, 1967), PP.167-174.
    49.________ , "Bargaining in a Three-Person Game," American Political Science Review, 61 ( June, 1967), PP.642-656.
    50.________ , "Comment on Butterworth`s Research Note on the Size of Winning Coalition," American Political Science Review 65 (Sept. 1971), PP.745-747.
    51.________ , "Communication on Hardin`s `Hollow Victory` ", American Political Science Review, 71 (Sept., 1977), PP. 1056-1059.
    52.________ , "The Future of a Science of Polities," American Behavioral Scientist, 21 (Sept./Oct., 1977), PP.11-38.
    53.________ , "The Two-Party System and Duverger`s Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science," American Political Science Review, 76 (Dec. 1982), PP.753-766.
    54.________ , "Political Theory and the Art of Heresthetics," in A. Finifter (ed.), Political Science: The State of Discipline, (Washington, D. C.: American Political Science Association, 1983), PP.47-67.
    55.________ , and William J. Zavoina, "Rational Behavior in Politics," American Political Science Review, 64 (March, 1970). PP.48-60.
    56. Rogowski, Ronald, "Rationalist Theories of Politics: A Midterm Report," World Politics 30 (January, 1978), PP.296-323.
    57. Schlesinger, Joseph A., "The Primary Goals of Political Parties: A Clarification of Positive Theory," American Political Science Review, 69 (Sept.1975), PP.840-849.
    58. Schofield N., "The Kernel and Payoffs in European Government Coalition," Public Choice, 26(Summer,1976), PP.29-50.
    59. Shapiro, Michael J., "Rational Political Man: A Synthesis of Economic and Socio-psychological Perspectives," American Political Science Review 63 (Dec.,1969), PP.1106-1119.
    60. Shepsle, Kenneth A., "On the Size of Winning Coalitions," and "Minimum Winning Coalitions Reconsidered :A Rejoinder to Butterworth`s `Comment`," American Political Science Review, 68 (June, 1974), PP.505-518 and PP.522-524.
    61. Stokes, D., "Spatial Models of Party Competition," American Political Science Review, 57 (June,1963), PP.368-377.
    62. Strom, Kaare, "Minority Governments in Parliamentary Democracies: The Rationality of Nonwinning Cabinet Solutions," Comparative Political Studies, 17 (July,1984), PP.199-226.
    63. Taylor, Michael, "On the Theory of Government Coalition Formation," British Journal of Political Science, 2 (1971), PP.361-386.
    64.________ , and V. M. Herman, "Party Systems and Government Stability," American Political Science Review, 65 (March, 1971), PP.28-37.
    65.________ , nd Michael Laver, "Government Coalitions in Western Europe," European Journal of Political Research, 1 (1973), PP.205-248.
    66. Terchek, Ronald J., "Positive Political Theory and Heresthetics: The Axioms and Assumptions of William Riker," The Political Science Reviewer, 23 (Fall, 1983), PP.
    67. Warwick, Paul, "The Durability of Coalition Governments in Parliamentary Democracies," Comparative Political Studies, 11 (January, 1979). PP.465-498.
    68. Weale, Albert, "Review Article: Social Choice Versus Populism? An Interpretation of Riker’s Political Theory," British Journal of Political Science, 14 (July, 1984), PP. 369-385.
    69. Zarski, Raphael, "Inter-party Conflict in a Dominant Party: The Experience of Italian Christian Democracy," Journal of Politics, 27 (1965). PP.3-34.
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