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    Title: 新推個案房價指數分析—產品趨勢、異常點與結構轉變
    An Analysis of HPI of New Housing Projects: Product Trends, Outliers and Price Structural Changes
    Authors: 袁淑湄
    Contributors: 張金鶚
    袁淑湄
    Keywords: 特徵價格法
    房價指數
    顯示性偏好
    住宅消費量指數
    最小消去平方法
    再加權最小平方法
    穩健迴歸
    結構轉變
    Date: 2016
    Issue Date: 2016-09-02 00:50:17 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 新推個案住宅的價格波動受到社會各方關注。新推個案住宅是國人購屋的管道之一,為國內重要的住宅次市場;以及預售屋價格影響中古屋價格波動,預售住宅價格為領先指標,提前一季反映出中古屋市場的價格變化。新推個案住宅因具備上述特色,因此如何編制具有穩健性的房價指數為重要議題。本文主要研究內容依循指數編制的三大步驟展開,依序分成三大主題,分別為:典型住宅的變遷、異常點分析、房價結構。期能更瞭解新推個案住宅市場特色、家戶的消費行為,並在指數編制技術上進行改善與調整,尋找適合新推個案住宅市場之房價指數編制方式。
    本文實證資料採用國泰建設與政治大學台灣房地產研究中心,針對新推住宅個案之市場調查資料。採用此資料的特色在於該資料屬於住宅流量資料,以及考慮預售屋及新屋的交易特性,因此,在模型指定與樣本資料上處理,本文的做法不同於一般編制中古屋價格指數。
    本文三大研究主題的研究成果,說明如後。研究主題一為新推住宅個案市場的典型住宅變遷分析。從指數編制的步驟而言,研究本主題的意義為確認市場的消費變動情形是否與指數編制時固有的固定品質有差異,此外本文亦編制住宅消費量指數,重新解讀家戶面臨過高房價所得比狀況下,市場的住宅消費量的變化,以及計算住宅特徵的平均消費量及其邊際願付價格。實證結果顯示,台北市住宅消費量指數從98Q1之後逐漸下滑,新北市則下滑趨勢較不明顯。主要的消費替代行為是:減少在市中心區位的消費,換得更大的居住坪數。
    研究主題二為異常點分析,比較不同參數校估方式的模型表現,並分析異常點特性。從指數編制的步驟而言,研究本主題的意義為緩和指數公式的住宅屬性價格受到市場推案活潑之影響。實證結果顯示,經比較使用OLS模型、DFFITS技術和穩健迴歸中的「再加權最小平方法(Re-weighted Least Squares, RLS)」模型,以RLS模型表現較佳。台北都會區新推住宅個案異常點特色可歸納為三:推案基地周圍及所在行政區生活機能便利,但距離市中心較遠且發展落後的地區;推案基地周圍小環境較差的地區;非典型的住宅產品,包括豪宅產品、類套房產品和景觀住宅產品。
    研究主題三為價格結構轉變分析,由於預售屋市場之推案特色較為活潑,典型住宅的變化較大,從編制指數的觀點此特性將造成指數的偏誤,因此在探討價格的結構轉變之前,需先釐清偏誤的處理作法,始能正確觀察價格的結構轉變。實證結果顯示:置換基期雖為編制房價指數常見的做法,但預售屋市場不穩定的典型住宅變遷,以費氏指數編制為較合適的處理方式。民國98Q4台北市新推住宅價格發生結構改變;新北市則無統計上較明顯的結構性改變。推測台北市家戶財富與全球金融市場關聯性較高,因此當97Q3發生美國次貸風暴後5季台北市受到影響。
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    Description: 博士
    國立政治大學
    地政學系
    96257502
    Source URI: http://thesis.lib.nccu.edu.tw/record/#G0096257502
    Data Type: thesis
    Appears in Collections:[地政學系] 學位論文

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