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政大典藏 > College of Commerce > Department of Business Administation > Periodical Articles > Item 140.119/100712

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://nccur.lib.nccu.edu.tw/handle/140.119/100712

Title:	Simple Rules for Combining Forecasts: Some Empirical Results
Authors:	唐揆 Ringuest, J.;Tang, Kwei
Contributors:	企管系
Date:	1987
Issue Date:	2016-08-24 17:23:12 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	This study is an empirical comparison of three rules for aggregating forecasts. The three combined forecasts evaluated are: a simple average forecast, a median forecast and a focus forecast. These combined forecasts are compared over four economic variables (housing starts, the index of industrial production, the unemployment rate and gross national product) using a set of previously published forecasts. The results indicate that an average forecast will not perform as well as previous studies indicate if all or most of the individual forecasts tend to over- or under-predict simultaneously. The median forecast also seems to be suspect in this case. There is little evidence to suggest that the median forecast is a viable alternative to the mean forecast. Focus forecasting, however, is found to perform well for all four variables. The evidence indicates that focus forecasting is a reasonable alternative to simple averaging.
Relation:	Socio Economic Planning Sciences, 21(4), 239-243
Data Type:	article
DOI link:	http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0
DOI:	10.1016/0038-0121(87)90028-0
Appears in Collections:	[Department of Business Administation] Periodical Articles

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